Pre-Season NBA Power Rankings & Tier List
Using my player forecast model to build team rankings.
Jump To:
Introduction
Introduction
Built upon my player forecast model, I’m pleased to have pre-season power rankings ready for the upcoming year! I’ve also added tiers to the rankings, grouping the teams based on their Weighted VORP.
Things to Consider
These rankings are intended to capture the overall team quality when considering factors such as experience, potential injuries, and more. The ratings are built off of the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) forecasts. As with any advanced stat, it isn’t perfect: it over-rewards a large role on offense and under-rewards off-ball defense. Weaknesses in VORP will also be reflected as weaknesses in the ranking system.
Although it can be harder to pinpoint where a prediction may be coming from with team rankings, I’ll do my best to give some food for thought. Also note that the power rankings are created using a weighted average of individual projections, and don’t currently account for differences in bench utilization.
Other Thoughts
These power rankings aren’t currently accounting for breakout rookies. It is in general a cautious model and doesn’t (yet) account for changes in scenery: new coach, team, or teammates. I think there are some arguments to be made for teams being under/overrated, but I’m overall quite pleased with the rankings.
I also split the teams into tiers because although these are rankings, they are built off of a metric with magnitude. I’m more interested in a discussion on whether a team belongs in a specific tier (rather than arguing team X should be #8 instead of #9).
It’s also important to remember that these are power rankings. What these aim to be is a general ranking of team quality. This doesn’t necessarily mean win projections (as they depend on strength of schedule) or modeling title favorites.
In the subsequent sections, I’ll first give an overview of the tiers. I’ll discuss some specific teams that the model may not get right. I’ll also give a brief description of how I created this rating system.
Tiers & Team Discussion
Tier 1. Title contenders: BOS, OKC, DEN, DAL
Boston is the favorite pre-season favorite of the model (and by Vegas, too). All of these four teams have made deep playoff runs in years past, and hope to do the same again. I’m continually impressed with Oklahoma City’s front office, as it seems their patient approach to team-building is paying off yet again. You could make arguments that other teams deserve to be in this tier, but I’ll discuss those later.
Tier 2. High Expectations: SAC, MIN, MIL, LAL
It wouldn’t be a surprise if any of these teams won a title. Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles are teams with both star power and playoff experience.
Sacramento stands out as a bit of an outlier here, but may not get its flowers because of its small market. DeMar DeRozan is likely the best free agent the Kings have ever signed (except for maybe Vlad Divac). The combination of Derozan and Sabonis may be just what the team needs to jump to the next level. That being said, Sabonis may be over-rated by VORP (VORP had him as the #5 player last year) which could also cause the model to over-rate the Kings.
Tier 3. Solid Playoff teams: IND, CLE, NOP, PHO, PHI, NYK, GSW
All of these teams could be dark horse candidates to win a title this year. They also include a couple of teams that my model discounts due to injuries.
There has been a ton of recent buzz surrounding the Knicks, and I’m not fully convinced that they can challenge Boston for the East. OG Anunoby has failed to surpass 50 games played 3 of the last 4 seasons, and KAT hasn’t hit that mark 3 of the last 5. It’s also unclear if they can remain healthy with the minutes Thibodeau likes to give his stars.
Joel Embiid’s health is another question mark. If he is healthy? The Sixers are a clear title contender. If he is unhealthy? It gets a lot less clear. Philly’s bench depth is also an area of concern in the model, further discounting them if Embiid gets injured.
Tier 4. Play-in & Playoff Hopefuls: MIA, LAC, HOU, ORL, MEM, ATL
In general, these teams are not expected to win a title but could win a playoff series. There’s an argument to be made for Miami being in a higher tier, but Jimmy Butler’s injuries and age are the biggest reasons for a cautious rating. The Clippers are also an interesting one, and Kawhi Leonard could very well have an all-NBA season.
The addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may also be more valuable to the Magic than the model currently predicts, and it’ll be interesting to see how the experienced vet helps the Magic’s young core develop. My model also struggles with forecasting young stars, so the Magic may be a bit underrated here.
Tier 5. Rebuilding: SAS, CHI, UTA, TOR
These teams may not reach playoff success this year, but they have things to look forward to. There’s a chance Toronto drops to the bottom five in the league next year, but the model rates their starters a good bit higher than the lower five teams.
Chris Paul in San Antonio may also dramatically boost the production of his teammates. My player forecast model doesn’t see Wemby growing like I think he will with a true point guard. If Wemby improves, and CP3 continues to defy his age, the Spurs will be a lot better than the model predicts.
Tier 6. Cooper Flagg Hopefuls: BRK, DET, POR, CHO, WAS
I’m glad we’re finally through the Ben Simmons 3-pointer video phase of the off-season. These teams do have good things to look forward to (probably not Ben Simmons shooting threes) but not for a couple of years.
Jordan Poole’s move to point guard seems promising for the Wizards, and Detroit’s additions of Tobias Harris, Paul Reed, and Tim Hardaway Junior will likely bring them from “historically bad” to “bad”.
I’d be amazed if any of these teams end up making the playoffs this year, and a healthy Charlotte roster probably has the best chance of doing so. Can LaMelo Ball play an entire season?
Methodology
This analysis is heavily based on my player forecasts for the upcoming season. For methodology on that, visit here.
The Weighted VORP is used as the method of power ranking, using the following weights within each team:
Top 5 - 60% (~12% each)
6 through 8 - 30% (~10% each)
9 and 10 - 7% (~3.5% each)
11 through 13 - 3% (~1% each)
These weights seem to be the most representative of a typical team. I also report the sum of the top five on each team, and also the raw sum of the top thirteen for comparison. These three methods of calculation yield similar results but also highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using the weights.
If you have different weighting suggestions, feel free to leave a comment! I’d be happy to re-run and report results, and could even update the power rankings too.